The Army-Navy game is a unique event in college football, standing out on the calendar due to its rich history, intense rivalry, and impressive tradition. It holds a special place as the only game played on the Saturday following conference championship weekend in December. Although traditionally the game has not impacted national rankings or the championship race, this year presents a different scenario.
Both the service academies, Army and Navy, are currently undefeated and ranked in the top 25. With the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff, the Black Knights and Midshipmen have a legitimate chance at Playoff contention if they can secure a victory in the American Athletic Conference.
However, the Playoff field will be determined on December 8th, six days before the Army-Navy game in Landover, Md. Additionally, as both schools are now in the same conference, their December 14th matchup could potentially mark their second meeting in one season.
Let’s take a closer look at the possible outcomes.
How did we get here?
Army QB Bryson Daily leads all FBS players with 19 rushing touchdowns. (Lucas Boland / Imagn Images)
For the first time since 1926, both Army and Navy have started a season with a perfect 6-0 record.
Army remains undefeated at 7-0, dominating with a strong rushing offense led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who has tallied 26 total touchdowns. The team is also undefeated in AAC play with only two conference games remaining.
On the other hand, Navy boasts a 6-0 record and is scheduled to play against No. 12 Notre Dame in a crucial match. The Midshipmen are also unbeaten in AAC play and are off to their best season since 2019.
At present, Army and Navy hold the top two spots in the AAC standings.
Could they play twice?
It’s a possibility, with the potential for back-to-back matchups. The teams might compete in the conference championship game on December 6th and then face each other again in their traditional game on December 14th.
However, Tulane poses a threat with a 3-0 conference record, and their upcoming game against Navy could impact the Midshipmen’s chances at reaching the conference championship and, consequently, the Playoff.
Will the Army-Navy game impact the CFP?
The AAC championship game would have Playoff implications, but the regular Army-Navy game would not factor into the Playoff picture.
The selection for the Playoff will take place on December 8th, preceding the Army-Navy game. In previous years, the selection committee could consider the game’s outcome if it had implications, but with the adjusted 12-team Playoff schedule, this is no longer feasible.
This scenario presents a unique possibility where a service academy could win the AAC and secure a Playoff spot, only to lose to the same opponent in their final regular-season game.
While bragging rights are still up for grabs, the game itself will not impact the Playoff standings.
Would there be less preparation time for a Playoff game?
If either Army or Navy secures a Playoff spot, they would have less time to prepare for their postseason opponent, as no other teams play during the week of December 14th.
What are their chances for the Playoff?
There is a 29.6 percent chance for either Army or Navy to make the Playoff, with specific probabilities varying based on upcoming game results.
If Navy defeats Notre Dame, their chances increase to 10%, dropping to 5% in case of a loss. Army’s percentages are higher due to their upcoming matchup against Air Force, with a 30% chance of making the Playoff with a win and 14% with a loss. The model also predicts a 63% chance for Army to win the AAC and 15% for Navy.
GO DEEPER
What do Army and Navy’s historic starts mean for AAC championship? CFP?
What else is needed for a Playoff berth?
To secure a Playoff spot, Army or Navy must continue winning and clinch the AAC title, as at-large bids are unlikely. Additionally, they would benefit from competition within the Mountain West conference, particularly games involving Boise State and UNLV.
Boise State, currently ahead of Army and Navy with a 5-1 record, faces a crucial match against UNLV. The outcome will have a significant impact on the Group of 5 Playoff bid.
A recommended rooting strategy to support Army or Navy’s Playoff chances would be to root for UNLV to cause an upset and subsequently hope for both teams to face losses in the remaining games.
Have Army or Navy won national championships?
Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, Army claimed national titles in 1944, 1945 and 1946. (Bettmann via Getty Images)
Both Army and Navy have a history of winning national championships, although the details are complex due to the evolving nature of college football championships. Army claims five national titles, with multiple programs also laying claim to those years. Similarly, Navy shares a national title from 1926.
The last time either team entered the AP top 10 was in 1964 when Navy reached No. 6.
What’s next?
Army’s remaining schedule includes games against Air Force, North Texas, Notre Dame, UTSA, and Navy. On the other hand, Navy will play against Notre Dame, Rice, South Florida, Tulane, East Carolina, and Army.
(Top photo: Barry Chin / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)