Ishiba Shigeru emerged victorious last month in the race to become the next President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), securing his position as the next Prime Minister of Japan. This victory signified a significant departure from the past two decades dominated by the Seiwa Political Analysis Council, the faction led by former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo within the LDP.
Despite the formal dissolution of the Seiwa Kai, the faction still exists in some form within the LDP. The recent election results marked the first time in over 20 years that a presidential candidate supported by Seiwa Kai politicians did not win. Ishiba’s cabinet does not include members of the Seiwa Kai, indicating a shift in power dynamics within the party.
The eclipse of the Seiwa Kai can be attributed to several factors, including Abe’s assassination and the involvement of senior members in political funding scandals. The faction has been dissolved, and its activities have been suspended, making it difficult for its members to participate in the upcoming House of Representatives election in October 2024.
The defeat of candidate Takaichi Sanae in the LDP presidential election may have implications for international relations, particularly with China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The close ties between the Seiwa Kai and Taiwan have influenced Japan-Taiwan relations in the past, and the change in power dynamics within the LDP could impact diplomatic efforts between the two countries.
In September 2024, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te made new appointments related to Taiwan’s Japan policy, signaling a shift in diplomatic strategy. By appointing individuals trusted by Lai to manage relations with Japan, the Taiwanese government aims to strengthen ties with Japan beyond the influence of the Seiwa Kai.
KAWASHIMA Shin is a professor at the University of Tokyo.
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