In early September, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, had a meeting with Shafiqur Rahman, the chief of the Bangladeshi political party Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), at the party’s central office in Dhaka. Yao described JI as a “well-organized” and “disciplined” party. JI had previously been banned by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a decision that was recently overturned by the interim government.
This meeting was significant as it was the first time a foreign diplomat had visited the JI office since 2010. It indicates that Beijing is willing to adapt to the changing political landscape in Bangladesh by maintaining communication with all political parties. This approach allows China to be flexible and protect its interests regardless of who is in power in the future.
On the other hand, India’s influence in Bangladesh is at risk due to its perceived association with Hasina. With the formation of an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, India has chosen to wait and observe, potentially losing leverage to China if Beijing continues to engage actively with Bangladesh’s political powers.
A Shifting Landscape
Bangladesh’s political scene has been dominated by key players such as the Awami League, JI, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). JI, historically aligned with the BNP, found itself marginalized under the Awami League’s rule. After Hasina’s departure and the interim government lifting the ban on JI, politics in Bangladesh is in flux once again.
China’s influence in Bangladesh has grown significantly, with substantial investments and partnerships across various sectors. On the other hand, India’s relationship with Bangladesh is being challenged as it struggles to engage with the evolving political landscape in the country.
China’s Strategic Influence
China’s investments in Bangladesh have been substantial, reaching $26 billion between 2016 and 2022. Chinese companies have created jobs and established economic ties in Bangladesh, further solidifying their influence. China’s diversified engagement with political players and society positions them favorably against India’s influence in Bangladesh.
India’s Challenge
India’s strong ties with Hasina’s government have been beneficial, but with new political forces emerging, India risks losing influence if it doesn’t engage with all political players. New Delhi needs to navigate the changing political landscape in Bangladesh to maintain its interests and partnerships.
This content was originally published in Stimson Center’s South Asian Voices and has been re-published with permission.