As the approaching 2024 U.S. presidential election draws near, both U.S. allies and adversaries are gearing up for the possible return of former president Donald Trump to the White House. With Trump having secured the Republican presidential nomination, he stands a significant chance of reclaiming the presidency, especially as current President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have dipped below 40 percent.
An unconventional approach to foreign policy from Trump could bring about substantial geopolitical shifts globally in a second term. One relationship that might be affected significantly is the alliance between the United States and South Korea. Trump’s potential return to power in 2025 could lead to tensions in the U.S.-South Korea relationship in several distinct ways.
Firstly, Trump may diverge from South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s policies regarding North Korea’s nuclear program. Yoon has been pursuing a containment strategy towards North Korea, aiming to enhance deterrence against North Korean threats by strengthening the alliance with the U.S. Yoon has also worked on fortifying South Korea’s military capabilities, including missile defenses and retaliatory strike abilities.
Additionally, Yoon has put pressure on North Korea to make concessions on its nuclear program by isolating the regime economically and diplomatically. He has emphasized the need for tangible progress on denuclearization through direct diplomacy with North Korea, linking any relief or assistance to concrete steps towards denuclearization.
In contrast, a second-term Trump administration might pursue different approaches to Yoon’s strategy. Trump could lean towards engaging with and accommodating Pyongyang, favoring personal diplomatic interactions with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un rather than isolating him. Trump’s prior actions, such as suspending joint military exercises with allies as part of his diplomatic efforts with North Korea, indicate a preference for direct engagement.
Furthermore, Trump might clash with Yoon over the issue of sanctions. Rumors in 2023 suggested that Trump was contemplating lifting sanctions on North Korea in exchange for a freeze on its nuclear program, diverging from the demand for progress on denuclearization.
The differences between Yoon and Trump could also escalate over host-nation support for U.S. forces stationed in South Korea. During Trump’s administration, he mandated a 400 percent increase in South Korea’s financial support for U.S. forces, leading to friction in the alliance. Yoon, while supportive of a stronger alliance, is unlikely to agree to such a significant increase, prompting preemptive negotiations with the Biden administration.
Additionally, the divergence between South Korea and the U.S. regarding relations with China may widen under a second Trump administration. Yoon has maintained a balanced stance towards China, strengthening ties with the U.S. and Japan while also fostering positive relations with China. However, Trump’s more hawkish approach towards China could lead to disagreements between the two allies.
Despite the potential challenges, the U.S.-South Korea relationship could remain robust through pragmatism and compromise. Previous revisions to the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement demonstrate the feasibility of finding mutually acceptable compromises. An incoming Trump administration might prioritize global conflicts over Korean Peninsula issues, which could minimize the impact on the alliance partnership.