The 2014 NFL Draft is months away, but according to Steve Gera, a Cleveland Browns executive already had a strong opinion on a controversial prospect.
Working as a special assistant to head coach Rob Chudzinski, Gera brought over five years of NFL experience. He had started in the league with the San Diego Chargers in an analytics role after completing his MBA at San Diego State and reading “Moneyball.” His job involved scouting opponents and providing coaches with data in a way that was easy to understand.
Gera’s approach, which included humor and storytelling, helped him transition into coaching. While in Cleveland in 2013, he overheard an executive praising Johnny Manziel’s competitiveness, comparing him to Michael Jordan.
Curious, Gera asked for more information, and the executive pointed to game footage as evidence of Manziel’s tenacity.
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After leaving the NFL, Gera gained experience in the NBA and European soccer, founded data science companies, and taught. His time in different sectors solidified his views on football, particularly the flawed decision-making process in the draft.
According to Gera, comparing prospects to legends from the start, as in the case of Manziel, can lead to misguided decisions. The draft, he argues, is rife with cognitive biases and uncertainties.
Discussions with various sports executives revealed a mix of uncertainty, overconfidence, and competing interests in the draft process. Despite years of research on drafting strategies, few teams have embraced alternative thinking and acted differently.
In 2011, Kevin Meers applied for an analytics internship with the Dallas Cowboys, leading to an interesting encounter with the team’s management. Meers’ economics and statistics background from Harvard caught the Cowboys’ attention, prompting a discussion on a research paper related to draft inefficiencies.
The paper by economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey highlighted teams’ tendency to overvalue draft picks and their abilities to evaluate player talent accurately. Meers uncovered data that challenged traditional draft beliefs, such as the undervaluation of the No. 1 pick and the benefits of trading picks.
- The No. 1 draft pick is the least valuable in the first round.
- Players starting more games than the next player chosen is only 53% likely across all rounds.
- Teams can achieve a 174% return on trades by deferring picks to the following year.
Thaler and Massey recommended accumulating more picks to increase the chances of finding successful players. Despite the findings, many teams remained resistant to changing their drafting methods.
Conversations with various sports executives further revealed a reluctance to adopt new strategies due to competing incentives, biases, and the fear of acknowledging uncertainty.
In 2002, during the NFL Draft preparations, the Indianapolis Colts showcased their detailed player evaluations, highlighting the complexity of drafting decisions. GM Bill Polian emphasized the importance of internal factors that influence player selections beyond public perceptions.
Despite access to extensive information, teams often struggle to make successful draft choices due to hidden variables affecting player evaluations. A study on GM performance in drafting showed mixed results, suggesting the influence of randomness in selection outcomes.
The debate over trading down for more picks versus selecting impact players highlights the inherent uncertainty in drafting decisions. While some advocate for stockpiling picks for better odds, others prioritize the immediate impact of high selections.
Notable figures like Ozzie Newsome and Chris Ballard have shown success in leveraging draft picks for improved outcomes. However, the reluctance to deviate from traditional drafting practices remains prevalent among many teams.
The complex dynamics of decision-making in the draft, influenced by various stakeholders’ conflicting interests, reflect the challenges teams face in optimizing their draft strategies for long-term success.
Public scrutiny, team ownership preferences, and individual biases all contribute to the intricate landscape of draft decision-making, highlighting the need for a more informed and collaborative approach to player selections.
While research has shed light on drafting inefficiencies and the benefits of trading down for more picks, the reluctance of teams to fully embrace alternative strategies underscores the enduring challenges of the NFL Draft process.
Fans might not be thrilled with the idea of their team trading down in the draft. (David Eulitt / Getty Images)
Addressing the draft’s challenges requires a holistic understanding of the factors influencing decision-making and a willingness to adapt to evolving trends in player evaluation and selection.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Tom Pennington, Marlin Levison, Harold Hoch / Getty Images)