Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Since Florida repeated as national champs in 2007, no defending champion has advanced past the Sweet 16. That ends this year.
Connecticut is the most complete team in college basketball, and it’s going to end that streak and repeat as national champions. That was my pre-bracket prediction and I’m sticking with it, but the selection committee really has me uneasy about that prediction. The Huskies received no favors as the top overall seed. You could argue that UConn has the toughest path to Phoenix as any of the top seeds. Iowa State has the best defense in college basketball. Illinois has one of the best offenses and was a team pre-bracket that I was pretty sure I would push through to the Final Four, and Auburn is the candidate to be this season’s UConn.
My other pre-bracket rule: Fade the Big 12. The league is the most physical in the country and its teams, outside of Iowa State, are entering the NCAA Tournament bruised and battered. And if you look through the all-conference teams in the Big 12, the talent is not comparable to past years. There aren’t a lot of pros, and the talent is down. There are still a lot of good teams, but for most of the year it felt like Houston was the only great one. And Houston is a shell of itself right now.
Sometimes it’s a curse to watch a lot of college basketball because it leads to going too chalky. Last season, that would have gotten you in real trouble. This year the top is stronger. It’s not just the eye test. Adjusted efficiency margins at KenPom.com suggest this as well. For instance, last season’s No. 1 entering the tournament (Houston) would be this season’s No. 3. Last season’s No. 2 (UCLA) would fall to No. 6 this year. The numbers a year ago were hinting at possible chaos. This year we could get a more chalky Final Four.
Now, maybe you’ve come here for help with your bracket. My advice: If you’re convinced that UConn is the best team, then pick the Huskies. But if you’re not, there’s a lot of value in picking Purdue. The Boilermakers have been one of the best two teams in the country all season, but a lot of people are going to pick an early upset because Matt Painter’s team has lost in the first round in two of the last three tournaments — including No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year. This is not the same Purdue team. That one featured freshmen guards who were wearing down. Now Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are sophomores, and Smith, in particular, has made a big leap and is one of the best point guards in the country. He also has playmaking help in Southern Illinois transfer guard Lance Jones.
I’m sticking with UConn, but I’ve got Purdue in the championship game.
Let’s get to the nitty gritty now. Here is a region-by-region breakdown.
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East Region
South Region
West Region
Midwest Region
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(Photo of Donovan Clingan: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)