I want to start by offering an apology in advance for taking a bit of a shortcut here. The term “breakout” is often thrown around as if it just happens out of the blue, but in reality, it usually requires a catalyst. Predicting a “breakout” in advance can be tricky because it’s not always what we think it is. Instead, a real breakout is all about seizing opportunities, such as more minutes and touches, rather than experiencing a sudden surge in performance.
A good example is Tyrese Maxey, last season’s Most Improved Player from the Philadelphia 76ers. While he had been steadily improving since his rookie year in 2020, the real change for him came when James Harden left the team early in the season. This opened the door for Maxey to become the primary on-ball initiator for the team, increasing his usage rate from 24.1% to 28.0% and boosting his scoring from 20.3 points per game to 25.9.
Similar narratives can be found when examining the players on my All-Breakout squad for this season. These are 11 players whom I believe have the potential to significantly increase their production compared to last year.
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Now, about the shortcut – I must confess that I have a bit of an advantage already, having seen a fraction of the upcoming games. This makes it a bit easier for me to compile an All-Breakout Team, as I have insight into how minutes and touches might play out for these players after a few initial games.
Projecting breakouts can be more complicated than it appears. Injuries, slumps, and our cognitive biases can easily derail a potential breakout. Just take a look at last season’s list.
I correctly picked the Most Improved Player (Maxey), but none of the other players who received votes made my list. While I had some players like Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren, and Scottie Barnes, who did experience significant breakouts, I also included players like LaMelo Ball and Mikal Bridges. Additionally, Charlotte’s Mark Williams, who seemed like a sure bet last year, ended up playing only 19 games.
That being said, let’s dive into my list for this year. I’ve tried to include players from different levels of the playing spectrum, ranging from established stars to role players.
My 11-player All-Breakout Team for the 2024-25 season:
This isn’t just a knee-jerk reaction to Anthony Davis’ stellar performance on opening night against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Davis has been on a hot streak for the past few months, standing out as one of the most productive players even during preseason, and playing a crucial role in Team USA’s gold-medal win.
Prior to that, he ended the previous regular season strong and put up impressive numbers in the playoffs against the Denver Nuggets. Davis is now primarily playing as a center, which seems to be his most effective position despite his preferences. Health and shooting will always be determining factors for Davis, but if he can maintain his current form, this could be a standout year for him.
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Dyson Daniels, SG, Atlanta
Daniels’ breakout isn’t your typical story of increased touches and shots. Instead, he is making a name for himself as a defensive stopper for the Atlanta Hawks. While his playing time was limited in New Orleans due to a crowded backcourt and shooting struggles, he now has the opportunity to showcase his defensive prowess in Atlanta as a starter. If he can provide some offensive threat as well, Daniels has a good chance of leading the league in steals and earning a spot on an All-Defensive team.
Zion Williamson, positionless, Houston
Coming off a strong finish to last season, Williamson is poised for a breakout year. His move to center should unlock new dimensions in his game, allowing him to exploit mismatches and dominate inside. Despite missing the season opener due to illness, Williamson’s potential impact is eagerly anticipated, with hopes of a full season of peak performance.
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Amen Thompson, positionless, Houston
Thompson, the fourth pick in the 2023 draft, is poised for a breakout season where he can showcase his unique skill set as a hybrid center-guard. While he faces some challenges, such as coming off the bench and improving his decision-making, Thompson’s athleticism and defensive capabilities make him a key player to watch this season.
This is just a preview.