Mongolia is preparing to test Thucydides’ famous observation that the “strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must” on September 3. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit Mongolia to commemorate the 85th anniversary of the joint victory against Imperial Japan in 1939 at the Khalkhin Gol River, as confirmed by the Kremlin.
This visit is significant due to an arrest warrant issued against Putin by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2023 for war crimes in Ukraine. Despite Mongolia’s ICC membership and signing of the Rome Statute, it is unlikely that Putin will face arrest on Mongolian territory due to the country’s heavy dependence on Russian energy.
ICC member countries are obligated to detain suspects under the Rome Statute, but enforcement depends on the cooperation of individual states. Mongolia could become the first ICC member state to openly defy the court’s arrest warrant for Putin.
Mongolia’s energy security relies heavily on Russia, with 95% of petroleum products sourced from Russia. As the war in Ukraine continues, both sides are targeting critical energy infrastructure, with Russia banning fuel exports except to friendly countries such as Mongolia.
Despite positioning itself as a beacon of democracy, Mongolia is facing the reality of geopolitics and is likely to prioritize its national interest over international obligations by signing agreements with Russia for fuel supply.
This decision may disappoint the international community, but in the realm of realpolitik, states often prioritize national interest over international obligations, especially when it comes to energy security. The invitation of Putin amidst the Russia-Ukraine war raises questions about how Ulaanbaatar will justify its actions.