The Kansas City Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, so the entire NFL will be looking to knock them off their perch atop the league. What’s surprising, though, is that despite winning two titles in a row, my NFL Projection Model does not see the Chiefs as the favorites to win it all this year. That’s more a testament to the AFC, which is deep with talented teams, making the Chiefs’ march to another conference crown extremely difficult.
Then again, the road won’t be easy for any team. If it were, we wouldn’t be watching.
GO DEEPER
NFL QB Tiers 2024: Only 2 join Mahomes in Tier 1; Rodgers, Herbert drop out
With that in mind, and the start of the season less than a week away, let’s examine the 10 teams most likely to win the Super Bowl and provide reasons why they will or won’t be the last team standing in February.
NFL Projection Model: Super Bowl
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
The 49ers still have arguably the best roster in the NFL, with my projection model suggesting they have the best offense and fourth-best defense in the league. Quarterback Brock Purdy is 17-4 as a starter in his young career, and coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football. When you have top-five units on both sides of the ball and you’re coming off a second NFC title in three years, it’s not hard to argue for why you’ll win it.
GO DEEPER
NFL Projection Model, NFC win totals: Are 49ers, Lions still cream of the crop?
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
Contract chaos. Negotiations with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams spill into the season, and without these two practicing for the majority of the summer, the offense sputters out of the gate and struggles to find a rhythm.
And if the 49ers ultimately deal Aiyuk, that will be a huge blow to the offense despite their investment in the position in the draft. The 49ers employ a rookie contract quarterback, so they have plenty of talent beyond Aiyuk and Williams, but without those two pushing the unit to full strength, it’s hard to envision San Francisco reaching another Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.8%)
Why they’ll win the Super Bowl
You know the reasons. It’s hard not to sound like a broken record when talking about this era of the Chiefs, but here goes: They have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an all-time great coach in Andy Reid, one of the best assistant coaches in recent memory in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a championship-caliber roster. If Mahomes is healthy and under center, it’s hard to see them as an underdog against anyone.
GO DEEPER
NFL Projection Model, AFC win totals: Can anyone dethrone the Chiefs?
Why they won’t win the Super Bowl
No team in the Super Bowl era has ever three-peated. It’s incredibly difficult to win the Super Bowl, and despite Mahomes and Co. making it look so easy, the AFC really is stacked this year. One thing I’m worried about is that the Chiefs kind of sleepwalked through the regular season last year. If they have to go on the road in the playoffs again, maybe the defense takes a step back (replacing star CB L’Jarius Sneed won’t be easy) and they trip up in a tough environment like Baltimore or Buffalo.