Armenia has decided not to take part in the upcoming military exercises organized by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), adding weight to discussions about Armenia’s potential departure from the alliance.
Yerevan is reportedly absent from the Cobalt-2024 exercise set to happen from August 14-16 in Novosibirsk, Russia. Reports in Russian media about the exercise do not mention Armenia as one of the participants. Armenia is also not planning to attend three other upcoming exercises – Cooperation-2024, Search-2024, and Echelon-2024 – happening in Kyrgyzstan from September 3-15. A CSTO press release detailing the drills explicitly stated, “The Armenian side has informed that it will not participate in the exercises.”
The CSTO was established in 2002 as a development of the post-Soviet Collective Security Treaty (CST) formed in 1992. The alliance currently includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia, with Russia being seen as the predominant force due to its significant size and influence. Uzbekistan was part of the CST but chose not to renew its membership in 1999, a decision also followed by Georgia and Azerbaijan. However, Uzbekistan joined the CSTO in 2006 before withdrawing in 2012.
Armenia is poised to become the second full member of the CSTO to withdraw.
In June, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan criticized the CSTO for failing to support Armenia during its conflict with Azerbaijan. “We will leave,” Pashinyan declared during a parliamentary session. “We will decide when to leave. We won’t return, there is no other choice.”
Despite Pashinyan’s statements, there have been varying diplomatic signals. Following the headlines about Pashinyan’s comments, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan clarified that the country had not yet announced its withdrawal from the CSTO. “Those claiming that the prime minister stated Armenia is leaving the CSTO are mistaken,” Mirzoyan explained.
When Azerbaijan initiated attacks and captured Armenian-controlled territory in September 2022, invoking CSTO Article 4 for protection, the CSTO’s response was seen as inadequate. With Russia’s focus on the conflict in Ukraine, Armenia felt uncertain about its security, especially being situated between hostile neighbors like Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Armenia received minimal support from the CSTO, which undermined the alliance’s credibility in the eyes of the Armenian government and the public.
Since 2022, Armenia’s relations with the CSTO and Russia have deteriorated further.
Armenia did not attend the CSTO’s summit in late November 2023 in Minsk and officially ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) the same month. In February 2024, Pashinyan announced that Armenia had “paused” its CSTO membership. With Armenia’s ICC membership in effect, the country is obligated to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he visits Armenia due to an ICC warrant for his arrest. In May, the Armenian Foreign Ministry declared it would not approve the CSTO’s 2024 budget.
Regarding military exercises, Armenia has skipped previous engagements, including the Indestructible Brotherhood-2024 exercise in Kazakhstan in June with the CSTO Peacekeeping Forces.
It is clear that Armenia’s decision to abstain from these exercises aligns with Pashinyan’s statement about the frozen relationship with the CSTO and the subsequent budget choice.
The only question remains about when, not if, Armenia will formally withdraw from the CSTO.