Global travel came to a standstill during the pandemic, especially for China, which enforced strict and prolonged restrictions on international travel. As a result, the number of flights to and from China significantly declined. Despite lifting restrictions in 2023, the increase in international flights has not materialized. Some airlines that resumed flights to China are now scaling back.
One reason for this is the global aviation industry’s split into two groups: airlines allowed to fly over Russia and those that are not. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many countries have placed sanctions on Russia, prompting Putin to impose no-overfly sanctions on airlines from those nations. This has forced European carriers to use longer and more costly routes to reach China, avoiding Russian airspace.
The impact and implications are primarily on China. Instead of competing with Chinese airlines, which can fly over Russian airspace, several international carriers have opted to suspend direct flights to mainland China.
Virgin Atlantic, one such airline, has justified its decision to end flights to Shanghai based on purely commercial reasons. The longer routes required due to the Russian airspace ban have increased operational costs significantly.
Similarly, Qantas has ceased its Sydney to Shanghai route due to decreased demand post-COVID-19. The airline plans to explore a return to Shanghai in the future while maintaining a presence in China through partners and existing routes.
India, in contrast, has kept direct flights to China grounded since 2020 due to political tensions stemming from a border dispute. Despite this, India continues substantial bilateral trade with China.
The absence of direct flights reflects the relationship dynamics between countries cancelling routes to China. While these decisions may have commercial justifications, they also highlight the geopolitical factors at play.
As foreign airlines shift focus away from China, it raises questions about China’s global relationships and its inclination towards isolation. This situation may open doors for other destinations and investment opportunities outside of China.