Myanmar’s domestic gas production is declining rapidly. The country’s largest gas field, Yadana, is reaching the end of its lifespan. Since the military takeover in February 2021, Thai imports of Yadana gas have decreased by 47 percent, leading to a conflict-ridden situation in Myanmar. This decrease in gas production has resulted in a 35 percent drop in electricity generation capacity in the country post-coup. While the depletion of Yadana was predicted, the unexpected military seizure of power has disrupted Myanmar’s fragile energy system. So, what comes next, and how can we address this?
First and foremost, Myanmar’s energy crisis is a direct consequence of its political turmoil. Without political reform, there can be no sustainable energy solution. The loss of confidence in the State Administration Council’s governance by both foreign investors and local businesses has led to a drastic drop in Myanmar’s currency value, making gas imports for electricity generation unaffordable. To resolve the energy crisis, a political resolution is imperative.
Merely reshuffling the junta leadership will not address the fundamental issue. The Myanmar military’s historical track record in economic management has been abysmal, showing little improvement over decades. The lack of implementation of development projects and the repetition of failed economic policies demonstrate the military’s inability to learn from past mistakes. A political transition alone will not suffice to fix the energy crisis.
With dwindling gas reserves, power cuts, primarily in Yangon, are set to worsen, affecting industrial activity and daily life. A shift towards green energy solutions, such as solar and wind power, is crucial for Myanmar’s energy future. Rapid deployment of renewable energy sources and resuming LNG imports to Yangon is essential for a swift resolution to the power supply crisis.
Moreover, the reliance on existing hydropower plants in regions with ethnic armed groups poses additional challenges for stable energy supply. Collaboration with ethnic states for energy production and equitable distribution is needed for a sustainable energy framework in Myanmar.
To overcome the current energy crisis and foster sustainable growth, Myanmar must transition back to civilian rule, implement a Green Reconstruction Plan focused on renewable energy deployment, and establish fair energy agreements with ethnic states. This holistic approach is crucial for Myanmar’s energy sector revival and long-term development.