Who will be the next president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)? This remains a perennial question for the observers of Japanese politics because of Japan’s post-war political convention that the president of the ruling party is endorsed as the prime minister of the country by the Japanese Diet. As Kishida Fumio’s first three-year term of holding the LDP presidency comes to an end in September, whether Kishida will be able to survive in this post – and the associated prime ministership – is one of the burning questions in Japanese media and political circles.
Whether an incumbent prime minister will remain in office or give way to a successor can be evaluated based on two survival indices: the approval rating of the prime minister’s Cabinet as well as the “Aoki Law.” In Japanese politics when a prime minister’s approval rating plummets below 30 percent, it is considered dangerous, and pressure from within the party mounts on the incumbent prime minister to relinquish the post as well as the party’s presidency. The Aoki Law – developed by then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki Mikio, who held that post from 1999-2000 – suggests that when the sum of the approval rating of cabinet and the LDP dips below 50 points, the administration is in the “danger zone.” Analysts believe that public opinion indicates “citizen’s contentment and should be taken seriously.”
Both the indices – the basic Cabinet approval rating and the Aoki Law – suggest that Kishida has entered the danger zone and his political survival is at stake. For example, an opinion poll conducted by Jiji Press on July 11 indicated that his Cabinet’s approval rating has plummeted to 15.5 percent, the lowest seen since December 2012, when the LDP regained power. Polls conducted by other media also show similar trends.
An Asahi Shimbun opinion poll conducted last month found that the approval rating of the Kishida Cabinet is hovering around 19 percent and the LDP’s approval rating has dropped to 24 percent. The sum of these two ratings is 43 percent, well below the 50 percent threshold flagged by the Aoki Law.
The low approval rating, however, has not deterred Kishida from holding on to his LDP presidency and Japan’s prime ministership. He has already completed 1,000 days in office, becoming Japan’s eighth longest serving prime minister. He was recently quoted by the Asahi Shimbun as saying: “I will continue to make efforts to achieve results on the issues that are still halfway through.” This can be interpreted as his determination to remain in office.
Why is Kishida not succumbing to these two indices, which show that he has entered the “danger zone”? The answer lies in Kishida’s perseverance, which is a hallmark of his politics, allowing him to survive the factional politics of the LDP.
Kishida’s Climb to the Top
In 2017, when Abe Shinzo was in his second consecutive presidency, Kishida was rated high in the public opinion polls concerning politicians who could succeed Abe. In the 2017 Cabinet reshuffle, he left the Abe Cabinet after serving five years in the capacity of foreign minister and chose to become LDP Policy Research Council chief, believed to be the third topmost post in the party. Media reports around that time interpreted that Kishida had left the Cabinet to prepare himself for the LDP’s topmost post, which would enable him to become the country’s prime minister. Given Abe’s popularity around that time, however, it was certain that he would secure a third consecutive term.
To assess whether Kishida will challenge his LDP presidency, Abe invited him for a dinner meeting on January 25, 2018, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported in a special series in the run-up to the election. Abe discussed with Kishida the 1999 LDP presidential election, which was contested between Obuchi Keizo and Kato Koichi. In that year’s election Kato, from the LDP’s Kochikai faction – the same faction Kishida belonged to – contested unsuccessfully against Obuchi, the incumbent LDP president and Japanese prime minister. After the election, Obuchi sidelined his challenger in the LDP and Kato faded into oblivion.
According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, referring to the 1999 LDP presidential election, Abe told Kishida: “Mr. Kato made a mistake, didn’t he? If he had not run for president at that time, without a doubt he would have become prime minister.” Kishida merely responded: “Mr. Kato did not think Mr. Obuchi will get so angry.”
It was not certain whether this meeting led Kishida to change his mind to challenge Abe, but regardless, he opted out of the 2018 LDP leadership race and did not suffer the same fate as Kato. During the remaining period, he continued to serve as the chair of LDP Policy Research Council and patiently waited for the next presidential race. When Abe abruptly resigned after serving almost two years of his third consecutive presidency, citing ailing health amid a plummeting public approval rating, Kishida did not delay announcement of his candidacy to serve the remainder of Abe’s presidential term.
In the LDP presidential election held in September 2020, various LDP factions announced their support to then-Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida had a very slim chance to win the elections. However, in the trilateral contest that took place between Suga, former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru, and himself, Kishida’s strategy was to secure at least second position to keep his hope alive for the next presidential election. He was successful in this strategy.
Kishida prepared himself for the next presidential election, which was held in 2021, after Suga completed the remainder of Abe’s term. Initially, Suga was keen for an extension of his term, but then he abruptly announced he would not seek re-election, realizing he lacked support. The 2021 LDP presidential election was a four-corner election contested among Kishida, Kono Taro, Takaichi Sanae, and Noda Seiko, which resulted in no one securing an outright majority in the first round. Kishida got 256 votes, one more than his closest rival, Kono, necessitating a run-off between the two top contenders. In the run-off election, Kishida defeated Kono easily, 257 votes to 170.
In short, Kishida’s patience and “wait-and-see” strategy paid off. He was endorsed by the Japanese Diet and became the prime minister of the country on October 4, 2021. Kishida did not get a very high public approval rating in the polls conducted soon after his assuming office, however, and he continued to struggle to propel his Cabinet approval rating beyond 30 percent.
Kishida’s Challengers in the 2024 LDP Leadership Race
Kishida’s continued low approval rating is mainly due to his poor connection with the domestic audience, despite scoring high on the diplomatic front. He has not implemented his campaign pledge to address the widening gap between rich and poor, which he termed New Capitalism. He also toed Abe’s line on constitutional revision and security and defense issues, apparently to seek support from hawkish factions within the LDP to ensure his political survival. Moreover, he has been unable to address various issues that he inherited from his predecessors, including the decline in Japan’s population and the resolution of the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korea. Improving these longstanding problems might have boosted his popularity.
As regards the new low in approval rating of Kishida’s administration, as reflected in the July 11 Jiji poll, the political fund scandal within the LDP has played an important role. To overcome this problem, Kishida dissolved his faction and asked other faction leaders to do the same. All the faction leaders have obliged except Aso Taro. The dissolution of LDP factions was followed by passing new legislation to bring transparency in political funding. These measures, however, have failed to satisfy the public, as they feel that the steps are inadequate to stop malpractice by the ruling party. The approval rating of the Kishida Cabinet remains sluggish and pressure has started mounting on him from within the party to relinquish his post.
Like his predecessors, Kishida had two options to boost his popularity, thereby extending his term in office: reshuffling the Cabinet and/or dissolving the parliament to call for a snap election. Kishida exercised the first option in December 2023 and was contemplating a snap election this summer. However, the LDP’s losses in three by-elections in May this year scuttled his chances of calling for fresh polls.
Meanwhile the LDP has already formed an election board and the presidential election campaign will likely start in late August. Although no one has officially entered the race, three LDP veterans so far have hinted at challenging Kishida in the next LDP election: Ishiba Shigeru, Takaichi Sanae, and Kono Taro. Now the attention has shifted to who could be the winner in the upcoming election. Polls suggest that Ishiba is the first choice of the Japanese public; in a Yomiuri Shimbun poll incumbent LDP President Kishida came in a distant fifth.
A Japanese media report argued that for Takaichi, getting 20 endorsements, a prerequisite to file her nomination, will not be easy.
Kono is a more serious challenger. He had been popular on social media and among the rank-and-file party members, which enabled him to seriously challenge Kishida in the previous LDP election. However, his mishandling of the My Number issue and glitches that took place while replacing the health insurance card with My Number, drew anger from Japanese users and has dimmed his popularity. Nonetheless, he is trying to seek support from the Aso faction, to which he belongs, to increase his share of votes among Diet members – the area where he fell short last time.
As for Ishiba, he is the most favored candidate in public opinion polls to succeed Kishida. He has shown his intention to contest the LDP presidential election for a fifth time. Although popular with the general public, Ishiba has always struggled to win support within LDP leadership ranks, due to his iconoclastic approach to politics. To try and shore up support, Ishiba has held rounds of meetings with key LDP leaders, including former Prime Minister Suga.
Will Kishida withdraw from the race amid challenges to his presidency, like his predecessor Suga did? It seems unlikely. Already he has toured various LDP chapters, which can be interpreted as a strategy to boost his chances of re-election. During the election, Kishida may appeal to LDP voters to give him one more chance to undertake unfinished tasks. He may take credit for helping the country come out of deflation after three decades.
History also supports Kishida. It is rare in the history of the party that a sitting LDP president has been defeated by a challenger. Moreover, the dissolution of LDP’s factions has also made political alignment on factional lines toward a candidate more difficult. In a multi-candidate presidential election, there is a high chance this will lead to a run-off like the previous election. If a run-off takes place between Ishiba and Kishida, Kishida has an upper hand given he has more support among the Diet members than Ishiba.
It is too early to speculate who will be the winner in the coming presidential election. However, it will be an interesting election to watch.