The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will hold its annual leaders summit in Astana, Kazakhstan on July 3-4. This in-person summit follows a virtual event in 2023 and is significant as Belarus joins as the 10th member, expanding the SCO’s reach beyond its original regional mission. According to analyst Eva Seiwert, this move commits the SCO to a multilateral representation of the “new international order” promoted by China and Russia, increasing its international profile but potentially diminishing its regional relevance.
The SCO, initially the Shanghai Five established in 1996, later evolved to include Uzbekistan and focus on regional security in 2001. India and Pakistan joined in 2017, followed by Iran in 2023. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend this year’s summit in Astana, delegating External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate, with the latter also holding sideline meetings with various members and partners.
Expectations for attendance from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus are high, while the status of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif remains unconfirmed. Iranian acting President Mohammad Mokhber is unlikely to attend due to internal political developments. The Taliban, despite its observer status, is not invited, but there are discussions about its potential future engagement within the SCO.
As the summit approaches, there are optimistic and cautious perspectives on its implications for regional and global affairs. The SCO’s ability to navigate tensions among members and maintain credibility amid conflicts such as the China-India border clash and Russia’s actions in Ukraine continues to be a subject of scrutiny. The addition of Belarus may broaden the SCO but could also divert its focus and impact its credibility, particularly given Belarus’s controversial political stance.
In anticipation of the summit, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed hope for increased cooperation and contributions to global security, stability, and development. The summit’s outcomes will provide insights into the SCO’s future direction and role in shaping the international order.