Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s narrow victory in the 2024 general elections dashed his hopes of a sweeping National Democratic Alliance (NDA) dominance. The focus of this election was not on Modi’s ability to win a third term, but rather on the scale and scope of his victory.
While the domestic political implications of the election results have been widely debated, there has been less discussion on what Modi’s reliance on his coalition to stay in power means for China-India relations. Despite his underwhelming victory, Modi’s foreign policy objectives are unlikely to veer off course. Here, we explore several key factors that will continue to impact Sino-Indian relations following Modi’s narrow win.
Partners and Rivals
India recognizes Beijing as a formidable adversary – one of its two major geopolitical rivals in the region. China, with its advanced military capabilities, economic strength, and influence in South Asia, poses a significant challenge to India’s diplomatic and strategic interests. The ongoing border dispute, punctuated by incidents like the Doklam standoff and the clash in the Galwan Valley, signifies a deepening strategic rivalry between the two nations. This rivalry, coupled with China’s activities along the Line of Actual Control, indicates that Sino-India relations are unlikely to see much progress during Modi’s third term.
In addition to territorial disputes, there is a battle for regional influence between India and China. The South Asian region, which traditionally falls under India’s sphere of influence, has seen increasing Chinese presence and engagement. China’s initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and its strategic movements near India’s borders pose significant challenges for India. The relationship between China and Pakistan, with both countries being nuclear-armed adversaries, adds another layer of complexity to India’s strategic calculations.
Areas of Possible Engagement and Escalation
Beyond the traditional areas of conflict, strategic deterrence, economic relations, and multilateral cooperation will shape the trajectory of China-India relations in Modi’s third term. India’s participation in initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue will likely increase to counter Chinese influence in the region. Modi’s diplomatic prowess and India’s standing on the global stage have enhanced the country’s image, leading to successful engagements with other nations to counterbalance China’s influence.
Nationalism and economic factors intersect to create tensions between India and China. While India’s economy remains strong, China faces economic challenges. Modi’s potential use of nationalism to boost his popularity could impact border disputes with China, potentially leading to escalations. India’s strategy to capitalize on China’s economic turmoil may further strain relations between the two nations.
India, China, and Taiwan
Modi’s political victory is expected to reshape the evolving relationship between China and India, with a special focus on India’s engagement with Taiwan. While China expressed interest in collaboration with India after the election, Modi’s willingness to enhance ties with Taiwan raised objections from Beijing. India’s potential collaboration with Taiwan in the technology sector, especially in semiconductor production, further complicates its relations with China.
The triangular relationship between India, China, and Taiwan intersects with space ambitions, geopolitical rivalries, and technological advancements. As India and China assert their positions as space powers, their competition in space technologies adds another layer to their strategic rivalry. Modi’s approach to enhancing ties with Taiwan, despite Chinese opposition, signals a complex and sensitive future for India-China relations.