The alliance between Iraq and China goes beyond just oil, which is often seen as the main foundation of their relationship. There are more than 200 projects valued at around $5 billion that are set to be carried out under bilateral agreements between the two countries, as reported by local Iraqi media. Haider al-Rubaie, the head of the Iraqi-Chinese Business Council, has recommended to the Chinese ambassador that he extend an invitation to Sudani to visit China and discuss potential future collaborative ventures between Iraq and China.
Reports suggest that the invitation is currently under consideration by the Iraqi prime minister. The timing of the decision seems favorable, given the positive state of the China-Iraq relations. Many Arab leaders are visiting Beijing, including participants in the recent China-Arab States Cooperation Forum. Previous Iraqi prime ministers, excluding Mustafa al-Kadhimi, have also made visits to China, highlighting the strength of the bilateral ties.
Nevertheless, the narrative surrounding Abdul-Mahdi’s visit to China and the subsequent events leading to his resignation following the 2019 protests have fueled conspiracy theories linking the China-Iraq deal to his downfall. These theories have gained traction among both the general population and the elite in Iraq, reflecting the intricacies of the China-Iraq and Iraq-U.S. relationships.
In contrast to the potential China trip, Sudani recently visited Houston, Texas, accompanied by Iraqi ministers and business figures. The visit aimed to strengthen partnerships with American companies in the energy sector. Despite the efforts to engage U.S. corporations, the subsequent oil bidding rounds saw Chinese companies secure the majority of the projects, leaving U.S. firms without any successful bids.
The shifting dynamics between China and the U.S. in Iraq have sparked protests against American companies, signaling a growing preference for Chinese investments. While the U.S. is concerned about China’s expanding influence in various sectors in Iraq, including telecommunications, efforts to counter it have been largely unsuccessful.
Given China’s increasing economic presence in Iraq, there has been anticipation for more frequent high-level exchanges between the two countries. However, the reluctance of Iraqi leaders to visit China despite ongoing projects raises questions about the future trajectory of the China-Iraq relationship.
For Sudani, the decision to visit Beijing may be influenced by domestic political considerations, especially with the upcoming elections and the potential backlash from the U.S. over the China-Iraq ties. Balancing foreign interests while addressing the needs of the Iraqi economy presents a complex challenge for Sudani and his administration.
While the prospect of Sudani’s visit to Beijing remains uncertain, the competition between China and the U.S. for influence in Iraq continues to evolve, shaping the country’s economic landscape and political dynamics.