In 2024, To Lam, Vietnam’s minister of public security, has had a fortunate year. Initially a candidate in a competitive race for the next general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), his competitors including Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, President Vo Van Thuong, Chairman of the National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue, and CPV’s Central Organization Commission head Truong Thi Mai have all resigned due to allegations of corruption. The CPV Central Committee has now nominated Lam as the next president, a pivotal role in Vietnam, which was confirmed by the National Assembly on May 22.
However, his new role may not be as advantageous as it appears. As minister of public security, Lam could target rivals without facing consequences due to his position. The presidency, on the other hand, is largely ceremonial, lacking the power to allow Lam to expand his influence. His success in fighting corruption at higher levels of the party-state led to his presidency appointment, but maintaining his power over the Ministry of Public Security (MPS) may be challenging.
Lam’s potential to retain his influence as president relies on his ability to secure a loyalist as the next minister of public security. Failure to do so could pose a threat to his career, as he has made enemies during the anti-corruption campaign. While there are risks involved in his presidency, there are also advantages, such as improving his hardline image and gaining positive publicity.
In the end, whether Lam’s presidency is beneficial or detrimental hinges on his ability to uphold his influence without direct control over MPS. While his new position elevates him in the party ranks, moving away from his power base presents a risk. The next two years will determine his political future in Vietnam.