As the NBA is nearing a new media rights deal, much attention has been on what it means for the league and its teams. However, another beneficiary of the set of deals that will reportedly pay the league an average of $6.9 billion over 11 years are the players.
The new deals, whether they end up with Warner Bros. Discovery, NBC, or Amazon as partners alongside Disney, are expected to more than double the current deals. The current contracts with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are set to pay the league roughly $3 billion next season. Expectations among team executives are that the salary cap will rise the maximum allowable 10 percent over the first seasons under the new media landscape, starting with the 2025-26 season.
The influx of money into the league is likely to lead to the achievement of a once-impossible feat: the $100 million salary.
NBA players are accumulating wealth at unprecedented levels. Players from the 2022 draft class will have the opportunity to earn over $1 billion in NBA contracts alone, before factoring in endorsements or sponsorship deals. With projected cap increases, a player might be able to earn that much over the span of two contracts in his prime. Jaylen Brown’s contract, estimated to be worth up to $304 million, could appear modest in comparison.
The NBA could see its first $100 million salary by the 2032-33 season. This assumes a salary cap of $141 million next season, as projected by the league, and 10 percent cap raises thereafter.
The contracts are set to be staggering. A five-year supermax deal starting in the 2030-31 season would be valued at $507 million under these estimates. The following season, a supermax deal could reach $557.78 million, and by 2032-33, a supermax deal could be worth $613.56 million.
Projected NBA Supermax Contracts
| Season | Projected Cap | 35% Max Salary | Supermax Deal |
|---|---|---|---|
|
24-25 |
$141 million |
$49.35 million |
$286.23 million |
The numbers could be optimistic, as cap increases and salary jumps may not progress as rapidly as expected. Despite national media rights accounting for a significant portion of basketball revenue, local media revenues are expected to decrease, with other potential issues arising.
The NBA or the NBPA could opt-out of the current CBA by Oct. 15, 2028, triggering a new CBA for the 2029-30 season. If the new CBA eliminates the cap-smoothing rule or removes the max salary cap limit of 35 percent, even larger numbers could be on the horizon.
Adam Silver, NBA commissioner, and Bill Koenig, president of global content & media distribution, have likely pleased many with the anticipated wealth for the league and players. The new collective bargaining agreement was designed with a new media rights deal in mind, aiming to maintain labor peace through the current CBA set to last until 2030.
While it’s early to discuss the offseason, it’s a fitting time to remind everyone about the CBA, which is set to enforce new regulations next season affecting team behaviors.
Teams above specific apron thresholds will have restrictions on trading players and salary aggregations, impacting their trade activities this summer.
Additionally, new rules regarding hard-capping and trade exceptions will come into play, affecting team strategies and flexibility starting July 1.
(Photo: David Berding / Getty Images)