Previously recognized for its political stability, albeit of the one-party, authoritarian nature, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) is now known for its unpredictability. Over the past two years, the CPV has removed two state presidents as part of a widespread anti-corruption campaign that has significantly impacted the bureaucracy since 2016. Additionally, the chair of the National Assembly resigned last month, and the Politburo has seen four senior members depart in the last 18 months.
With the upcoming CPV National Congress in 2026, where future personnel decisions will be made, the securocrats have taken control. The main candidates to succeed 80-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong as party chief are Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Minister of Public Security To Lam, both former police generals.
Bill Hayton of Chatham House expressed concerns last week that regardless of who wins, Vietnam could be moving towards a literal police state. Directives like Directive 24, leaked earlier this year, instruct party members to limit interactions with foreign organizations and crack down on anything deemed as “peaceful evolution” by the security apparatus. Repression has heightened since 2016.
The primary focus of the CPV is regime survival. Initially, cracking down on corruption was a way for the Party to gain legitimacy not solely based on economic growth. As public sentiment shifted away from socialism and nationalism, and towards frustration with corruption, the Party recognized the need to address graft as a pressing issue to maintain public respect.
Additionally, the anti-corruption efforts have allowed the CPV to control the private sector, which was seen as a potential political threat due to the growing wealth and independence of oligarchs. The crackdown has also served as a way for factions within the Party to eliminate their rivals, with the securocrats proving to be more effective in this regard.
There are debates about the impact of these anti-corruption measures on the economy. Some argue it has led to a decline in public investment and the removal of competent officials, while others believe it has improved the business environment and investor confidence.
Looking ahead, Vietnam is facing challenges related to an aging population, declining workforce, and economic competitiveness. Despite potential benefits from offshoring due to China’s economic issues, uncertainties regarding trade policies from countries like the United States pose risks for Vietnam’s economy.
Ultimately, the Communist Party of Vietnam is navigating complex challenges as it seeks to secure its regime’s stability while addressing pressing issues related to demographics, productivity, and economic development.