Following three consecutive losses to start the second round, the Carolina Hurricanes have managed to turn the tide with exciting back-to-back victories in Games 4 and 5.
This is closer to what many anticipated from this series initially — a fierce competition between the top teams in the Metropolitan Division. While the games were tightly contested on the ice in the first three matchups, the overall series score told a different story.
As Game 6 approaches on Thursday night, the Hurricanes have a significant opportunity to change the narrative. They are expected to be strong favorites at home to secure a third consecutive win and force a Game 7.
This prospect may be unsettling for Rangers fans, but it presents a rare spectacle for hockey enthusiasts. Not since 2014 has a team come back from a 3-0 series deficit to force a Game 7, when the Los Angeles Kings staged a remarkable rally in the first round to eliminate the San Jose Sharks.
The fact that a decade has passed since the last occurrence is more astounding than it appears at first glance.
In sports, there are few things more thrilling than a comeback, where a team fights back against all odds. In recent years, hockey fans have been treated to such spectacles on a game-by-game basis. The concept of the “most dangerous lead in hockey” has evolved to encompass larger margins, with three and four-goal advantages being erased at a higher rate. In hockey, no lead is ever truly safe.
Despite this trend in individual games, the same mentality has not extended to playoff series. Over the past ten years, a 3-0 series lead has often seemed insurmountable, with very few comebacks occurring.
While some may dismiss this as a non-story due to its rarity in hockey history, a 3-0 series lead is typically viewed as an insurmountable advantage for the leading team. However, with the increasing parity in the salary-cap era, one would expect more comebacks by sheer chance over the past decade.
Since 2015, there have been 30 instances of teams trailing 3-0 in a series, with 60% of those series ending in a sweep. Only four teams (13%) managed to force a Game 6, like the Hurricanes have now, with the Dallas Stars achieving this last year for the first time in eight seasons.
While the odds are stacked against a team down 3-0, they are not non-existent. The myth that only the worst teams fall into such a deficit is challenged by the fact that even strong teams have found themselves in such a position.
Based on the odds of teams coming back from a 3-0 hole, we should have seen a few more remarkable comebacks over the past decade, but they have been absent. This absence of chaos in the face of overwhelming odds is intriguing.
Looking back at the start of the salary cap era, from 2006 to 2014, we saw a higher percentage of teams down 3-0 put up a fight. A greater number of them won at least one game and a couple managed to force a Game 7, with two teams completing the comeback.
Despite the similarities in odds over the last decade and the previous era, the dramatic comebacks of yesteryears stand in stark contrast to the current trend. Hockey fans are eagerly awaiting a return to such exciting and unpredictable moments.
While the odds of seeing a Game 7 or a comeback are statistically low, the absence of such occurrences over the last decade is a departure from historical precedent. Hockey enthusiasts are hopeful for a return to the chaotic and thrilling moments from the past.
As the Hurricanes continue their quest to overcome a 3-0 series deficit, the odds have shifted in their favor after their recent wins in Games 4 and 5. The possibility of forcing a Game 7 and completing a historic comeback is now within reach.
The Rangers still hold a significant advantage with a 3-2 series lead, but the Hurricanes possess the potential to cause an upset and create chaos, as their slogan suggests.
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