What We Learned in April

So what do you know. We made it through April. What a bizarre month.

Taylor Ward outhomered a guy who hit 54 homers last year (Matt Olson). Maikel Garcia had more extra-base hits than Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Ronel Blanco has been the best starting pitcher on the Astros. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner (Blake Snell) has been the worst starting pitcher on the Giants.

Josh Hader’s ERA is over 6.00. Brennan Bernardino’s ERA is under 1.00.

Why do we even pay attention to this stuff?

You think LeBron James has ever had 25 games like Aaron Judge’s first 25 games (.191/.319/.383 slash line)? It’s not even possible — not in that sport. But baseball — well, it’s not that sport.

“It’s just a different sport,” one American League executive was saying the other day. “But that’s why I love our game — because it’s so unpredictable.”

Yeah, it can be a wacky ride on the Tilt-A-Whirl, all right. So it can be difficult to know what to make of baseball in April. But hey, it’s your lucky day. We’re here to help you make sense of it — with your favorite column and ours: What We Learned in April.

1. Baseball is hard

Paul Goldschmidt, just two years removed from an MVP season, is one of the many big-name players off to poor starts.

We shouldn’t need a reminder of this. But baseball is hard.

Ask Aaron Judge (see above). Ask Paul Goldschmidt (four extra-base hits in April). Ask Julio Rodríguez (three extra-base hits all month). Ask Corbin Carroll (slugging .246 this season). Ask Alex Bregman (hitting .216, with no homers until his last game of the month).

But not just them. Ask some of the biggest shooting-star prospects in baseball.

“I think of other names,” said another exec, who spends a lot of time on scouting and player development. “Like Jackson Holliday (just sent down by the Orioles after going 2-for-34). Like Darell Hernaiz (who’s at .174/.264/.174 for the A’s). Like Victor Scott II (who was 5-for-59 for the Cardinals before being demoted). Look at those three. Look at what they’ve done. They’ve hit worse than pitchers.”

There are many more names, of course. Just remember those names are guys who have been great at baseball all their lives. But this April, they haven’t been that great. And mostly. it all comes down to this: Baseball is hard. Harder than ever. As velocities creep up. As pitch shapes are scientifically designed in the lab to devour bats. As AI-generated data says: Throw it there, and this dude can’t hit it.

“You know, it’s so rare that the best players play their best for 162 games in 186 days, from day one,” said one of the execs quoted above. “That’s just not how it works.”

But why should that stop us from overreacting when we look at stars hitting .177 on April 29? Overreacting to April is a beautiful baseball tradition. So don’t make us stop. It’s what we do best. But when you hear us do that, feel free to hit us with those three magic words: Baseball is hard. It’s true!

2. Current state of the Astros’ dynasty: Rickety

The Houston Astros have 10 wins all season. They used to think nine wins was a disappointing postseason. But here they are, 10-19 after 29 games. So they’re officially in the danger zone. Not just this year, but as they return to Earth’s orbit in the seasons beyond this year.

Before they journeyed to Mexico last weekend and bludgeoned the cliff-diving Rockies twice, the Astros were just 7-19. Did you know only one team in history has started a season 7-19 or worse and made it to the postseason? And that team — the 1914 “Miracle” Braves — pulled off that fabled miracle 110 years ago.

So the canyon these Astros have dug for themselves is deep — so deep that both the history and the math say they’re a really bad bet to recover.

Here’s the history: Forget the 7-19 part. You can even forget all the years before the wild-card era (1995-present). In this era, since 1995, only three teams have been 12 games under at any point in the season and survived to play baseball in October. Just one team — the 2005 Astros — has done that after falling more than 12 games under.

Now here’s the math: The AL’s lowest wild-card seed last year won 89 games. To get to 89 wins, the Astros would have to go 79-54 from here. So they would have to play like a 96-win team the rest of the way. Which means, said one exec, “that even if they play like a 90-win team, they’ll win 84 games. So it’s a huge hole. It’s a massive hole.”

Yet another exec we spoke with said, matter-of-factly: “I’m not a betting man, but if I were betting a buck, I’d bet they’ll make the playoffs — still.”

Wait. What about what history tells us about teams that start the way these Astros started? “Those teams didn’t have the projections or the expectations that this team has,” he said. Plus six games out in the division, with 133 to play, doesn’t seem out of the reach of a roster like this, he added.

Maybe he’s right. Maybe that hole isn’t as massive as it looks. But what if it is? That possibility has rival front offices already wondering what a trade deadline Astros sell-off might look like.

They have no trouble imagining Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman and Ryan Pressly (all prospective 2024 free agents) getting dealt. But what about Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez — both free agents after 2025?

It’s a fascinating topic … except for one thing. Remember owner Jim Crane’s etched-in-stone quote after extending Jose Altuve a couple of months ago: “While I’m here, the window (to win) will never close.

We reminded the execs we polled of Crane’s words. They pointed at his team’s declining farm system and already hefty payroll. So can the Astros keep that window open indefinitely? Really?

“Good luck with that,” one AL exec said.