We, as a species, have difficulty envisioning something until it actually occurs. The NBA playoffs serve as a prime example of this particular shortcoming.
The Boston Celtics just finished a regular season where they triumphed in 64 games, securing their conference by a remarkable 14 games and achieving the fifth-best scoring margin of all time at plus-11.3 points per game. They either won or split the season series with 28 of their 29 opponents (well done, Denver), had no losing streak longer than two games, and are now entering the postseason without any significant injuries. And yet, it’s challenging to find individuals who would consider Boston as an overwhelming favorite because they haven’t witnessed this group of Celtics clinch the ultimate victory but have seen them fall short several times.
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We’ve witnessed this scenario before. Many individuals had a hard time imagining the Denver Nuggets winning the Western Conference, let alone the NBA Finals, last spring, despite being the top seed in the conference, having a two-time MVP as their centerpiece, and a dominant starting five. Some even hyped up the Lakers-Warriors second-round series, between two teams that combined for a record of 87-77 in the regular season, as the “real” conference finals.
However, looking ahead to 2024, we observe almost the opposite situation. The Nuggets are being spoken of in revered terms, with the term “inevitable” being tossed around. While they are indeed good, the description may be a bit exaggerated for a team that’s always a single injury away from resorting to makeshift lineups. Critics also point out that Denver had a favorable playoff bracket last year, facing two eighth seeds and a seventh seed on their path to glory. The Nuggets were deserving, unblemished champions in 2023, but 2024 presents a different challenge.
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As for the Celtics? Until the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown core secures the championship in June, they will always have skeptics. But that’s no different from several other eventual champions; people had similar doubts about the Shaq-Kobe Lakers, Kevin Garnett’s Celtics, and Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs until last year’s Nuggets.
The odds heavily favor Boston this time around. Out of the 15 teams that posted a margin of plus-9.3 or higher in an 82-game NBA season — just below what the Celtics achieved — only the 2015-16 Warriors (who lost the NBA Finals in seven games) and the 2015-16 Spurs failed to win a title. The other 13 champions won, with many securing victory in dominant fashion.
Even when we consider only basic wins and losses, teams that win 60 games and claim the league’s best record have gone on to win the title more than half of the time: 16 out of 31 cases. The most recent instance was Phoenix in 2022, who floundered in the second round against Dallas after securing the same 64 wins that the Celtics achieved. Hence, this recent history might skew our perceptions a bit.
I have another reason to back the Celtics: They are one of the four teams in the “52-3-3” club, and the only one in the East. Out of the NBA’s 44 champions since 1980, 43 of them won at least 52 games, boasted a plus-3.0 scoring margin, and were one of the top three seeds in their conference. This criterion significantly narrows down the field of potential champions to the top three seeds in the West (Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota) and the Celtics.
To counter my argument, some might suggest that factors like load management have made the regular season less decisive than in the past. For example, last spring witnessed first-round upsets by teams seeded fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth, with a No. 7 seed making it to the West finals (Lakers) and a No. 8 seed (Miami) reaching the NBA Finals. Lower-seeded teams won seven of the 15 series overall. Reflecting on my own performance, getting nine out of the 15 bracket lines correct before the playoffs began feels rather satisfactory.
However, a postseason like last year’s is an exception. In a typical NBA playoffs, only four teams without home-court advantage advance out of the 15 series; there were only two such occurrences in 2019, 2017, and 2015, with no more than five since 1995 before last year.
This season, the playoffs seem primed for more upsets due to the jumbled standings, except for Boston. Every East playoff team except the Celtics finished with wins ranging between 46 and 50, while the West’s stratification was marginally more distinct. Nonetheless, every series across both conferences appears to be competitive.
Forecasting this postseason was incredibly challenging, particularly in the East. But the greater issue is accommodating the unknown factor concerning player availability. Late-season injuries to star athletes could significantly alter the odds if they are unable to compete. Notable absences in the Play-In, like Zion Williamson and Jimmy Butler, as well as Alex Caruso’s questionable status, already hint at this unpredictability.
Hence, we venture bravely into this postseason fully aware that the risk of appearing wayward is at an all-time high. Even the Celtics, as dominant as they were in the regular season, are not guaranteed a straight route to the title. Despite the strength of their roster, they might not have the best player on the court in potential matchups, which is a legitimate concern. Injuries, slumps, hot streaks, and the general unpredictability of short series can always throw a spanner in the works.
Yet, our objective is not clairvoyance. I am simply trying to determine the most likely outcomes. Undoubtedly, I won’t hit the mark with all my predictions, but following careful analysis of several matchups, especially in the 1-4-5 bracket in the West, here’s what I believe is the most probable scenario for this postseason. Apologies if it leans more towards the favorites than you’d prefer.
West first round
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Sacramento Kings or New Orleans Pelicans
I foresee somewhat challenging series for the Thunder, regardless of whether they face the Pelicans without Williamson or the Kings potentially lacking Caruso. While New Orleans has capable defenders to counteract Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Brandon Ingram performs better without Williamson, Sacramento poses a physical threat with Domantas Sabonis. Struggles with injuries to Monk and Huerter place Sacramento at a disadvantage against a high-powered Thunder squad. The Kings might extend the series, but New Orleans could struggle to secure a win. Prediction: Thunder in six against Kings; Thunder in five against Pelicans.
Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander celebrate after a play against the Timberwolves in March. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)
No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
If a team lacks home-court advantage in the first round, they typically struggle unless they can at least split the season series. Unfortunately for the Lakers, they lost to Denver 3-0. Moreover, even with Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the court together, the Lakers failed to shine, finishing the season with a plus-0.6 scoring margin, the worst among teams with a winning regular-season record. In contrast, the Nuggets’ starting lineup excels, and matchups against bench-heavy units favored Denver throughout the season. Lakers may clinch a game, but if Nikola Jokić remains dominant, Denver’s advancement seems inevitable. Prediction: Nuggets in five.
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No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns
Optimism for Minnesota claiming a playoff series victory for the first time since 2004 was dashed as they drew a challenging opponent in Phoenix, a team that convincingly beat them three times in the regular season. Phoenix’s strategies capitalized on Minnesota’s defensive tactics, proving challenging for the Wolves. While Minnesota can make adjustments for a competitive series, Phoenix’s strength in perimeter scoring presents a formidable challenge. The Suns closed the season strongly and appear formidable in a short playoff series, especially with fitting matchups. Prediction: Suns in six.
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No. 4 LA Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
This matchup presents a conundrum, especially due to Leonard’s uncertain status and the significant changes in both teams since their last encounter in 2020. Faced with tremendous runs by Dallas and LA, each boasting impressive numbers with their star players, there seem to be no clear favorites in this series. History suggests that LA holds a slight edge, having won previous playoff matchups against Dallas; yet, Playoff Luka’s impact hints at a Dallas victory. Ultimately, betting against Leonard’s health and the strength of Dallas’ duo leans the prediction towards the Mavericks. Prediction: Mavs in seven.
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East first round
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls
Facing the most dominant team in the league, Miami or Chicago are set for a challenging series against the Celtics. Both teams lost to Boston in the regular season, and the Celtics’ superior size, defense, and shooting prowess pose a significant challenge. With roster advantages and defensive capabilities, Boston is poised to outmatch its opponents and advance swiftly. Prediction: Celtics in four.
No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
While Embiid’s Play-In performance showcased the Sixers’ might, his lingering injury concerns raise doubts. New York’s offensive efficiency, particularly with selective lineups, presents a formidable challenge. Possessing efficient units and strong defensive capabilities, the Knicks are favored, especially with the integrity of their key players intact. Prediction: Knicks in six.
No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers
Expect an intense series with a blurred outcome, compounded by Giannis’ potential absence in the initial games. Indiana’s victories over Milwaukee in the regular season and their depth advantage suggest a compelling matchup, with predicted struggles for the Bucks in the absence of their star player. Revamped defensive strategies under Doc Rivers might hint at a Milwaukee triumph after the Pacers’ initial upset threats. Prediction: Bucks in seven.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic
Mitchell’s dubious fitness raises stakes for the Cavaliers, especially with Orlando’s physicality and interior dominance. Cleveland’s offensive shift and Mitchell’s crucial role embody game changers, but potential injuries and bench limitations present threats. Cleveland’s rim protection might challenge Orlando’s offensive reliance, hinting at a close series. Prediction: Cavs in six.
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West semifinals
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
Anticipate a budding rivalry between the Thunder and the Mavericks in this showdown. Premiering as a fresh experience for the Thunder’s young talent, they face the solid starting lineup of the Mavericks presenting a formidable challenge. OKC’s guard-heavy approach positions them well for the postseason, with strategic advantages over Dallas. The Thunder may hold the edge tactically and rotation-wise, potentially securing a tough series victory. Prediction: Thunder in seven.
No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns
In this rematch of the 2023 second-round series, expect a similar narrative with the Nuggets emerging as the victors. Despite Phoenix’s improvements and achievements in the regular season, the Nuggets’ starting lineup dominance and strategic advantages forecast their advancement. Whereas Phoenix may have standout units, they are likely outmatched by Denver’s balanced excellence. Phoenix might secure a couple wins, but Denver’s consistency favors them over a seven-game series. Prediction: Nuggets in six.
