Are you ready for some NBA postseason? We got a little taste on the season’s final weekend with a few teams playing high-stakes games resembling playoff environments. This was especially true in the jumbled Western Conference standings where the New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Sacramento Kings were in a series of crucial games determining spots six through 10 in the West hierarchy.
And now, we take a break. There are no games on Monday, but we have two big play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by the final play-in for each conference on Friday. This sets up the bracket for the main event starting this weekend with four games on both Saturday and Sunday. The first round will run for two weeks, with potential seventh games on the weekend of April 27 and 28, leading up to Game 1 of the NBA Finals on June 6.
I’ll have a more detailed playoff preview later this week where we can discuss predictions for the later rounds based on the play-in results. For now, let’s take a high-level view of what the play-ins and first round look like.
Here is the essential information you need to know. (All TV times ET.)
Play-In Predictions
West: No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers, Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., TNT
In a rematch of a game played in the same arena on Sunday afternoon, the Pelicans may come into this one with greater motivation than their flat effort in Game 82. That said, this feels like a bad matchup for them – they lost three of the four meetings with L.A. in the regular season and were trounced in all three defeats, including an embarrassing 133-89 loss in Las Vegas in the in-season tournament semifinals.
The Pels have Brandon Ingram back after he missed 12 games with a left knee contusion; this was his first game since March 21. The Lakers, on the other hand, have to hope for Anthony Davis after the big man left Sunday’s game with hip and back spasms.
Fun fact: The Lakers outscore opponents by 3.2 points per 100 possessions with Davis and LeBron James on the court this year, which is the exact same margin by which the Pels prevailed with Ingram and Zion Williamson on the floor together. Despite the scores of the first four meetings, I suspect this one will be close. I also think that somehow, some way, the Pelicans’ superior depth will come into play, and with the help of the home crowd, they will come out on top.
Pick: Pelicans
West: No. 9 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 10 Golden State Warriors, Tuesday, 10 p.m., TNT
A repeat of the seven-game 2023 first-round series that saw the Warriors prevail behind Steph Curry’s 50-point eruption in Game 7, this time the Greater Suisun Bay derby is a single-elimination affair. The Kings’ depth is threadbare after injuries to Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, while after a rough start, the Warriors closed the year on a 26-12 heater and have been solid when Curry and Draymond Green take the floor together all season (+4.8 points per 100 possessions).
GO DEEPER
This is where the Warriors are now — 10th place and in March Madness mode
It would be cathartic for the Kings to knock out the Warriors after what happened last year and light that glorious beam, and Green’s antics are a wild card in a one-game situation. That said, only a fool bets against Curry in a situation like this, especially with the Kings’ injuries. The Warriors aren’t what they were, but they have at least one more battle in them.
Pick: Warriors
East: No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 8 Miami Heat, Wednesday, 7 p.m., ESPN
Last year, the Heat went from being the 7 seed entering the play-in to making the NBA Finals. Can the Sixers be the team to pull off that feat this year? Philly slumped in the standings due to Joel Embiid’s extended absence, but the reigning MVP (for a few more days, anyway) is back in the lineup and the Sixers went 30-7 in games he and Tyrese Maxey played in.
The teams split the season series 2-2, but Embiid only played in the last one, a 109-105 Sixers win on April 4 when Maxey scored 37 and Embiid added 29. Don’t forget these teams also played a second-round series in 2022 with most of the same key players; the Heat mostly neutralized Embiid behind Bam Adebayo’s defense and ended up winning in six games.
GO DEEPER
Miami Heat think they are ready to make another unlikely run: ‘It’ll be a show’
Nonetheless, I think having Embiid and a home-court edge, and with Nick Nurse on the sideline this time, Philly has the advantage on a Miami team that hasn’t looked like itself all year and will be missing Duncan Robinson and Josh Richardson.
Pick: Sixers