The “The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report,” recently released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, has attracted significant attention for its notable findings. A key highlight is China’s emergence as Southeast Asia’s preferred alignment choice over the United States amidst the ongoing China-U.S. rivalry. However, a closer look at various indicators reveals nuances.
While China is still perceived as the most influential economic and politico-strategic force in the region by 59.5% and 43.9% of respondents respectively, there have been gains by the United States and ASEAN. The U.S. was chosen as the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia by 14.3% of respondents, up from last year’s 10.5%, while ASEAN has surpassed the U.S. in political and strategic influence.
In terms of political and strategic influence, the U.S. has declined compared to China. The U.S. was selected as the most influential political and strategic power by 25.8% of respondents this year, down from 31.9% in 2023, while China’s score increased from 41.5% to 43.9%. Additionally, ASEAN has seen a significant rise in being perceived as a political and strategic influencer, surpassing even China.
Trust and legitimacy are crucial for major powers’ authority. According to the survey, 58.9% of participants view Japan as the most trustworthy major power, followed by the U.S. at 42.4% and the EU at 41.5%. China, however, has a lower degree of confidence, with only 24.8% expressing trust in its government, due to concerns over its military and economic strength.
While some factors in China’s political and economic influence inspire confidence, they also raise concerns, such as fears of threatening national interests. Japan’s trustworthiness stems from its respect for international law, with similar views regarding the EU. However, the EU’s appeal as a partner against China and the U.S. has decreased in the survey.
Though the U.S. is trusted for shaping the world order, doubts remain about its dependability, potentially influenced by policy inconsistencies. The survey suggests that any preference for China over the U.S. may be due to dissatisfaction with U.S. policies rather than a superior alternative provided by China.
Recent U.S. actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict have impacted perceptions, with respondents highlighting the conflict as a top geopolitical issue. Confidence in the U.S. as a strategic partner has decreased, particularly in Islamic countries, due to concerns about U.S. involvement in the conflict.
The survey showcases the polarizing effect of the China-U.S. competition in ASEAN, with member countries conflicted about alignment choices. The need for ASEAN unity in addressing internal and external pressures is emphasized.
Despite concerns about ASEAN’s effectiveness, there is optimism in the increasing favorable opinions towards the organization. The survey results underline the evolving perceptions towards China and the U.S., influenced by changing geopolitical conditions.
While the survey suggests a shift towards China, the dynamic nature of global events indicates that perceptions may continue to evolve in subsequent surveys. Consolidating institutions to unite ASEAN amidst the competition between major powers is crucial for regional stability.