A Chinese delegation has traveled to Myanmar in an attempt to resolve the conflict between the junta and the Arakan Army in western Rakhine state, as stated by Beijing’s envoy to the United Nations on Thursday. However, experts believe that peace may not be achieved unless the military regime makes significant concessions.
The Arakan Army, or AA, terminated a ceasefire agreement with the military in November, which had been in effect since the military took control of Myanmar in a coup in February 2021.
Since then, the ethnic armed group has inflicted a series of defeats on junta forces, capturing several townships in Rakhine state and a neighboring region. Reports by RFA indicate that nearly 200 civilians have lost their lives and over 500 have been injured during five months of conflict in Rakhine state.
China aims to play a “constructive role” in bringing stability to Rakhine state as soon as possible, as mentioned by Geng Shuang, China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations during a briefing at the U.N. Security Council in New York. He confirmed the presence of a Chinese delegation in Myanmar but did not provide details about the leadership or the purpose of the visit.
According to reports from pro-junta media, China’s Special Envoy for Asian Affairs, Deng Xijun, met with junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on border security issues and combating online scams upon his arrival in Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw on April 1.
The Chinese Embassy in Yangon revealed that China’s ambassador, Chen Hai, engaged in discussions with former junta chief Than Shwe and other prominent figures from the military regime to strengthen bilateral ties and support peace efforts in Myanmar.
The potential motivations for China’s involvement in the conflict stem from its interests in development projects in Rakhine state, including the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone and gas/oil pipelines to China’s Yunnan province. However, a seasoned Rakhine politician emphasized that true progress can only be achieved if the Arakan Army receives substantial concessions.
A political analyst and former military officer, speaking anonymously, highlighted China’s strategic intervention in Myanmar’s affairs due to its vested interests in the region’s stability. The analyst stressed that any disruption in Myanmar could impede Chinese projects and potentially influence the country’s governance.
Efforts to reach key figures from both the Arakan Army and the junta for comments on China’s involvement in the conflict have not been successful so far.
Mediation in Shan conflict
The “Three Brotherhood Alliance” launched an offensive against the military in northern Shan state, leading to a ceasefire brokered by China in January. However, subsequent violations and skirmishes have cast doubt on the sustainability of the agreement.
Subsequent meetings between the conflicting parties in Kunming aimed to address border concerns and maintain peace along the China-Myanmar border.
Requests for comment from the Chinese Embassy regarding their involvement in the Rakhine state conflict and the recent delegation’s visit to Myanmar remain unanswered.
Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.