Predicting China’s future is always challenging, but there are some trends that can offer insight. These trends revolve around Xi Jinping’s three “balancing acts”: managing economic growth with security, navigating diplomatic tensions with the U.S., and handling elite political competition.
Xi’s success in balancing these acts may have only delayed unresolved policy issues. His control over elite politics, while strong at the moment, could lead to power struggles among his loyalists once he leaves office.
Additionally, Xi’s approach to security and economic growth is facing conflicting pressures. While prioritizing security for the CCP, he also aims to stimulate economic development amidst challenges like an aging population and income inequality.
Xi’s economic strategies focus on reducing reliance on imports and boosting domestic innovation, despite possible consequences like financial strain and limited access to global technology.
In China’s competition with the U.S., Xi aims to shift global focus away from American dominance through initiatives like the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. These initiatives challenge U.S.-led norms and institutions, promoting China’s model of development and security.
While these initiatives may appeal to some countries suspicious of the U.S.-led order, they could strain relations with traditional U.S. allies. Beijing’s strategy risks expanding strategic competition globally, with uncertain outcomes.
In pursuing these balancing acts, Xi’s policies prioritize short-term gains while potentially creating long-term vulnerabilities.