Last week, there were reports in Indian media that the Israeli army was going to include Indian-made drones in its surveillance and aerial bombing fleet as it prepared for a military operation in the Gaza town of Rafah. This development signaled India’s increased involvement in Israel’s war efforts and a willingness to take on more risks in the Middle East.
In recent years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led India in a pivot towards Israel, driven by strategic, economic, and ideological reasons.
After the October 7 attacks, Modi was quick to express solidarity with Israel even before other world leaders. Many Indian workers then moved to Israel to fill a labor shortage after work permits for Palestinian laborers from Gaza were revoked.
However, despite this increase in cooperation, India has maintained a position of neutrality on Israel’s actions in response to the October 7 attacks and has continued to support the idea of a separate state in Palestine. India has also voted in favor of a ceasefire in Gaza, which has put it at odds with Israel and the United States.
One reason for India’s diplomatic caution is its relationships with the Gulf states. India has been hesitant to change its position on Palestine and risk alienating the Gulf states, which are important for India’s oil imports and host a large number of Indian expatriates. While reports of the drone transfer were circulating, Modi was visiting the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
If the reports about the drone transfer are true, it would indicate that India is now willing to take bigger risks in its partnership with Israel. Recent events have possibly convinced India that it has enough economic influence to take on these risks.
Two years ago, eight former Indian Navy officers were arrested and sentenced to death in Qatar, which strained the relationship between the two countries. However, after significant pressure and negotiations, the officers were released and repatriated to India ahead of Modi’s visit to Qatar.
Media reports suggest that the officers were accused of sharing sensitive documents with the Israeli government, leading to the closure of the consulting firm they worked for and the eviction of Indian employees. However, the reasons for their arrest and release were not publicly addressed by Qatar or India.
There were significant economic agreements around the time of the officers’ release, including a major energy deal between Qatar and India. This indicates that India’s economic clout may have played a role in Qatar’s decision to release the officers.
India’s growing population and energy needs have coincided with challenges for Arab oil exporters. This has positioned India as a significant market for Gulf crude, but it also means that India has to balance its relationship with Israel and the Arab world carefully to protect the millions of Indians living and working in the region.