Following the February 8 elections to Pakistan’s National Assembly and provincial assemblies, the country finds itself in a state of uncertainty with no clear winner capable of forming a stable federal government.
Independent candidates secured the most seats in the recent election, winning 101 of the 264 seats contested. Of these, 93 were backed by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) emerged as the party with the most seats (75) followed by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) (54).
No single political party possesses enough seats to form a government at the federal level, forcing parties to seek alliances and form coalitions to achieve the necessary numbers for governance.
PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif has extended an invitation to the PTI to form the government if their victorious candidates can demonstrate sufficient numbers in the parliament. Both the PML-N and PPP have agreed in principle to collaborate and form a government together, with a question of who will be the preferred candidate for the position of prime minister.
Seemingly, the chances of three-time Prime Minister and PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif becoming the country’s premier are diminishing, with indications that Pakistan’s powerful security establishment favors his brother, Shehbaz. The PPP is keen on extracting the most it can before entering a coalition with the PML-N, nominating Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for the top post. However, the possibility of the PPP initiating discussions with Imran Khan’s party cannot be ruled out.
Given the acrimonious relationship between the military establishment and the PTI, political parties may not be keen to form a coalition with PTI-backed candidates to secure the prime minister’s position. The only two major parties with enough seats in the national legislature that have demonstrated a willingness to work together are the PML-N and PPP.
It is plausible that the military wants the PML-N and PPP to move swiftly toward a power-sharing agreement, not only to counter the growing PTI pressure but also to ensure the continuation of the economic program that was initiated under the previous Shehbaz-led PML-N/PPP coalition government, as well as the caretaker government under interim Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar that followed.
The PTI holds a significant number of seats in the new National Assembly and could choose to sit in the opposition, making life difficult for the new premier. The PML-N and PPP need to consider these dynamics and work towards a collaborative and stable governance model to navigate through the challenges that lie ahead.
There will be more drama in the coming days as all political parties navigate their interests with the nation and international community watching intently.