The leader in the September 2023 issue of New African magazine, by the editor Anver Versi and titled “Is Russia a true friend of Africa?” has motivated me to share some reflections that I believe may be useful for the continent’s policy makers. In the leader, Versi raised two important points impacting Africa’s future development and its young population. He highlighted the lack of progress in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals, with only 12% accomplished so far, and the severe food shortage in Africa, affecting over 20 million people and 10 million children in 2022. According to the ECA, Africa’s annual food imports bill is projected to increase from $43 billion to $110 billion by 2025. Additionally, UNCTAD reports that developing countries face a $4 trillion financing gap in achieving the SDGs, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
These figures are alarming for a region that is still in its early stages of development and relies on its resources, including human resources, to progress as per the UN SDGs. Hunger eradication is a top priority, as without sufficient food, development is impossible. Failure to address this issue could lead to a harmful downward spiral, undoing the progress made so far. As a result, Africa’s future development and its critical food security situation have kept me, along with many others, awake at night.
I am also aware that many African countries are grappling with debt distress as a consequence of the economic blows from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns. These nations are allocating significant resources to debt servicing and facing difficulties in borrowing due to the tightening financial flows and rising interest rates. While rich countries borrow at low rates, poor countries have to pay over 14% for loans, reducing their ability to purchase food for their populations. Barbadian PM Mia Mottley’s Bridgetown initiative may help Africa address these challenges.
Furthermore, Versi highlighted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has contributed to the current cost of living crisis in Africa, impacting food security. Prior to the war, Ukraine and Russia were major exporters of wheat, vegetable oils, and fertilizer, critical for nutrition and food production. Ukraine accounted for 12% of Africa’s food needs, and Russia contributed around 32%, making the region heavily dependent on their supplies. However, since the war, food supplies from Ukraine have diminished, and Russian exports have become unreliable. This disruption in the food supply chain has led to skyrocketing prices, disproportionately affecting poor African countries.
After diplomatic pressure and negotiations, the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) was established, allowing agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia via the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. However, Russia later withdrew from the deal, worsening the disruption in supply chains and causing food prices to rise further. This has resulted in economic strain and increased social unrest. The African Union has called on Russia’s President Putin to restart BSGI to alleviate suffering caused by the withdrawal, but Putin has only pledged a small amount of grain aid to selected African countries.
As the Ukraine-Russia conflict is likely to persist, it is crucial for Africa to take action. Some countries, like Kenya, have engaged positively with Ukraine, showing support for the Ukrainian cause and exploring collaborations such as creating a grain hub in Mombasa. However, some countries have strongly supported Russia, potentially due to loyalty or concerns about energy supplies. Africa must take a stand based on its economic, moral, and security interests, and it is my belief that pressuring Putin to end the war of choice in Ukraine would be in the continent’s best interest. Africa needs reliable friends who can negotiate on an equal basis, and Russia does not fulfill that role. Recognizing this sooner rather than later will benefit us all.